Combat Edge Intelligence

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach78"
259 lbsWeight261 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKHK MMA Team· 1684 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

Shamil Gaziev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jairzinho Rozenstruik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jairzinho RozenstruikNow 1704
If they win+17→ 1721
If they lose-15→ 1689
Shamil GazievNow 1730
If they win+15→ 1745
If they lose-17→ 1713

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.48
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
49%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.92
52%
Strike defense
45%
0
Takedown avg.
1.06
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
72%
Takedown defense
83%
0
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Jairzinho RozenstruikShamil Gaziev
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (87%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (20%)
2 (13%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Shamil Gaziev80%
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 20%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Gaziev a 80% favorite over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Shamil Gaziev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1704, a 26-point edge.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Gaziev 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.