Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Collier vs Mohammed Usman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jake Collier
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Jake Collier

“The Prototype”

14-10-0HeavyweightUFC

1548Average

Tale of the tape

14-10-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
78"Reach79"
257 lbsWeight237 lbs
Pit MMATeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA

What's at stake

Mohammed Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jake CollierNow 1548
If they win+19→ 1567
If they lose-13→ 1535
Mohammed UsmanNow 1615
If they win+13→ 1628
If they lose-19→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.80
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
44%
Strike accuracy
39%
5.08
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.27
51%
Strike defense
51%
0.71
Takedown avg.
0.56
33%
Takedown accuracy
14%
68%
Takedown defense
67%
0.61
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jake CollierMohammed Usman
155016001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (43%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
4 (29%)
Submission
2 (18%)
4 (29%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Mohammed Usman70%
Jake Collier 30%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Mohammed Usman a 70% favorite over Jake Collier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Mohammed Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1548, a 67-point edge.

Jake Collier finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.