Jake Collier vs Nandor Guelmino
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record11-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"ReachTBD
257 lbsWeight230 lbs
Pit MMATeamGym 23
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1564
If they lose-16→ 1532
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake CollierNandor Guelmino
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jake Collier and Nandor Guelmino within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1555), separated by just 7 points.
Nandor Guelmino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jake Collier finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nandor Guelmino 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.