Jake Collier vs Ricardo Abreu
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record5-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'11"
78"Reach73,0"
257 lbsWeight185 lbs
Pit MMATeamWand Fight Team
What's at stake
Ricardo Abreu is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1567
If they lose-14→ 1535
If they win+21→ 1613
If they lose-27→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake CollierRicardo Abreu
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Collier55%
Ricardo Abreu 45%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Collier a 55% favorite over Ricardo Abreu in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ricardo Abreu's way (44%).
Ricardo Abreu holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1592 to 1549, a 43-point edge.
Jake Collier finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Abreu 100%.
Jake Collier carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.