Jake Collier vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
78"Reach78"
257 lbsWeight251 lbs
What's at stake
Tom Aspinall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1574
If they lose-7→ 1542
If they win+7→ 1782
If they lose-25→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1702 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake CollierTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall87%
Jake Collier 13%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 87% favorite over Jake Collier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Tom Aspinall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1775 to 1549, a 226-point edge.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jake Collier finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Jake Collier and Tom Aspinall share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.