Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake Ellenberger vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-15-0Record20-11-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Reign MMATeamFight Ready

What's at stake

Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jake EllenbergerNow 1665
If they win+13→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1654
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+11→ 1704
If they lose-13→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.47
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
39%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
61%
Strike defense
57%
2.04
Takedown avg.
1.01
48%
Takedown accuracy
34%
86%
Takedown defense
60%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Jake EllenbergerKelvin Gastelum
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

21 (68%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
4 (13%)
Submission
5 (25%)
6 (19%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum72%
Jake Ellenberger 28%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 72% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1665, a 28-point edge.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.