Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record36-20-2
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
39,5"Reach42,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Reign MMATeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1653
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerNate Marquardt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Ellenberger60%
Nate Marquardt 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Ellenberger a 60% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1651), separated by just 14 points.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.
Jake Ellenberger and Nate Marquardt share 1 common opponent: Kelvin Gastelum.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.