Jake Ellenberger vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
39,5"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-8→ 1657
If they win+8→ 1796
If they lose-16→ 1772
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robbie Lawler69%
Jake Ellenberger 31%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 69% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1665, a 123-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Jake Ellenberger and Robbie Lawler share 1 common opponent: Bryan Barberena.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.