Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record20-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
73"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tahir Abdullayev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1762
If they lose-13→ 1738
If they win+17→ 1744
If they lose-15→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jake MatthewsTahir Abdullayev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews69%
Tahir Abdullayev 31%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 69% favorite over Tahir Abdullayev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1727, a 24-point edge.
Tahir Abdullayev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jake Matthews finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tahir Abdullayev 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.