Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast52%Jake Matthews48%Tahir AbdullayevFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Jake MatthewsThe Celtic Kid |23-8-0Jake Matthews vs Tahir AbdullayevTahir AbdullayevTank |20-3-0

Jake MatthewsThe Celtic Kid23-8-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

23-8-0Record20-3-0

32Age29

5'11"Height5'8"

73"Reach73"

170 lbsWeight155 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Tahir AbdullayevTank20-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jake Matthews owns a 24-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jake Matthews and Tahir Abdullayev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jake MatthewsTahir Abdullayev

Recent form

Jake MatthewsW L W W W · +32 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Tahir AbdullayevW W W W W · +55 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Jake Matthews1751+11 last move

Tahir Abdullayev1727+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jake Matthews#31 of 331 active Welterweight fighters · 1751 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Andre Fialho (rated 1657 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Matthew Semelsberger (rated 1643 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +32 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #30 Roberto Soldić, 5 ahead of #32 Gilbert Burns.

Tahir Abdullayev#45 of 331 active Welterweight fighters · 1727 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jefferson Nascimento (rated 1693 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Khotam Boynazarov (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +55 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #44 Uros Medic, 2 ahead of #46 Islam Dulatov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

52%Jake Matthews48%Tahir Abdullayev

Model favoriteJake Matthews

Elo baseline53% for Jake Matthews

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jake MatthewsStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jake Matthews leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1751 · 1727Jake Matthews leads by 24 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1697 · 1516Jake Matthews faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth30 · 21 fightsJake Matthews has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jake MatthewsNow 1751 · #31 Welterweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1762

Loses by decision-13→ 1738

Tahir AbdullayevNow 1727 · #45 Welterweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1744

Loses by decision-15→ 1712

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jake MatthewsvsTahir Abdullayev

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jake Matthewssubmission leads 39% of wins

Tahir AbdullayevKO/TKO leads 55% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jake MatthewsTahir Abdullayev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.34Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

44Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

2.62Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

60Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

1.44Takedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

42Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

64Takedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0.75Submission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

5Wins by knockout11

9Wins by submission7

9Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout0

4Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision2

Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Jake Matthews enters with a 23-8-0 record and Tahir Abdullayev enters with a 20-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.