Jamahal Hill vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
79"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Black Lion Jiu-JitsuTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Jamahal Hill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1718
If they lose-18→ 1686
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jamahal HillPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jamahal Hill70%
Paul Craig 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jamahal Hill a 70% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jamahal Hill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1704 to 1662, a 42-point edge.
Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jamahal Hill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Jamahal Hill and Paul Craig share 1 common opponent: Johnny Walker.
Jamahal Hill carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.