Jamahal Hill vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
79"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Jamahal Hill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1716
If they lose-18→ 1684
If they win+13→ 1676
If they lose-11→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jamahal HillPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jamahal Hill and Paul Craig within a point of even.
Jamahal Hill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1663, a 39-point edge.
Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jamahal Hill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Jamahal Hill and Paul Craig share 1 common opponent: Johnny Walker.
Jamahal Hill carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.