Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
79"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
What's at stake
Jamahal Hill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1718
If they lose-17→ 1686
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jamahal HillThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jamahal Hill70%
Thiago Santos 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jamahal Hill a 70% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jamahal Hill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1674, a 29-point edge.
Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jamahal Hill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Jamahal Hill and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Glover Teixeira and Johnny Walker.
Jamahal Hill carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.