James Vick vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-6-0Record28-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'11"
TBDReach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Lloyd IrvinTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — James Vick carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1671
If they lose-7→ 1639
If they win+5→ 1874
If they lose-19→ 1850
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
James VickJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje92%
James Vick 8%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 92% favorite over James Vick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1646, a 223-point edge.
James Vick enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
James Vick finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.