James Wilks vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lightning MMATeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Matt Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — James Wilks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1542
If they lose-11→ 1510
If they win+9→ 1633
If they lose-15→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
James WilksMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Brown70%
James Wilks 30%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Brown a 70% favorite over James Wilks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Matt Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1521, a 103-point edge.
James Wilks finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.