Jan Błachowicz vs Jared Cannonier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-11-0Record18-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78"Reach 77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jared Cannonier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1735
If they win+18→ 1725
If they lose-14→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczJared Cannonier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz52%
Jared Cannonier 48%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 52% favorite over Jared Cannonier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1707, a 41-point edge.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Jared Cannonier 72%.
Jan Błachowicz and Jared Cannonier share 1 common opponent: Israel Adesanya.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.