Jan Błachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record21-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamGorets Fight Club· 1721 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1749
If they lose-8→ 1725
If they win+11→ 1864
If they lose-21→ 1832
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1761 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczMagomed Ankalaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev68%
Jan Błachowicz 32%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 68% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1853 to 1733, a 120-point edge.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Ankalaev 52%.
Jan Błachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev share 3 common opponents: Bogdan Guskov, Alex Pereira and Aleksandar Rakić.
Jan Błachowicz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.