Jan Błachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-11-0Record20-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamGorets Fight Club
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1763
If they lose-9→ 1739
If they win+12→ 1847
If they lose-20→ 1815
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczMagomed Ankalaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev84%
Jan Błachowicz 16%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 84% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1835 to 1748, a 87-point edge.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Ankalaev 50%.
Jan Błachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev share 2 common opponents: Alex Pereira and Aleksandar Rakić.
Jan Błachowicz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.