Jared Gordon vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jared Gordon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1693
If they lose-9→ 1669
If they win+12→ 1768
If they lose-20→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García76%
Jared Gordon 24%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 76% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1678, a 78-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Jared Gordon and Rafa García share 1 common opponent: Grant Dawson.
Rafa García carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.