Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-9-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
68"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jared GordonNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.64
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
54%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
56%
Strike defense
53%
1.78
Takedown avg.
1.31
33%
Takedown accuracy
36%
60%
Takedown defense
53%
0
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Jared GordonThiago Moisés
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (10%)
Submission
8 (42%)
11 (52%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Moisés53%
Jared Gordon 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 53% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1683), separated by just 5 points.

Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Thiago Moisés carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.