Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Papazian vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-14-0Record21-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team HayastanTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Tim Elliott is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jared Papazian carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jared PapazianNow 1551
If they win+15→ 1566
If they lose-9→ 1542
Tim ElliottNow 1644
If they win+9→ 1653
If they lose-15→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
40%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.65
45%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
3.71
0%
Takedown accuracy
48%
50%
Takedown defense
59%
0
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Jared PapazianTim Elliott
1550160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
2 (10%)
Submission
8 (38%)
12 (60%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Tim Elliott72%
Jared Papazian 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Tim Elliott a 72% favorite over Jared Papazian in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Tim Elliott holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1551, a 93-point edge.

Jared Papazian enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jared Papazian finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.