Jarred Gonzales vs Michael Lerma
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record0-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight154 lbs
TeamIronhorse Boxing Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447
If they win+24→ 1497
If they lose-24→ 1449
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Combat Edge model read
Jarred Gonzales61%
Michael Lerma 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jarred Gonzales a 61% favorite over Michael Lerma in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Lerma's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1471 vs 1473), separated by just 2 points.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.