Jason Lambert vs Jason MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record25-16-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPure Fitness
What's at stake
Jason Lambert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1646
If they lose-14→ 1622
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason LambertJason MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jason Lambert63%
Jason MacDonald 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Jason Lambert a 63% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Jason Lambert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1587, a 49-point edge.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Lambert finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.
Jason Lambert and Jason MacDonald share 2 common opponents: Matt Horwich and Wilson Gouveia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.