Jean Matsumoto vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-2-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Inside Muay Thai· 1671 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1773
If they lose-16→ 1741
If they win+16→ 1776
If they lose-16→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1754 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jean MatsumotoTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jean Matsumoto61%
TJ Dillashaw 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jean Matsumoto a 61% favorite over TJ Dillashaw in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans TJ Dillashaw's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1757 vs 1760), separated by just 3 points.
Jean Matsumoto finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.