Jefferson Nascimento vs Tahir Abdullayev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-1-0Record20-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"Reach73"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Tahir Abdullayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jefferson Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1692
If they lose-14→ 1660
If they win+14→ 1735
If they lose-18→ 1703
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jefferson NascimentoTahir Abdullayev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tahir Abdullayev60%
Jefferson Nascimento 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Tahir Abdullayev a 60% favorite over Jefferson Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Tahir Abdullayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1674, a 47-point edge.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tahir Abdullayev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jefferson Nascimento finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tahir Abdullayev 90%.
Tahir Abdullayev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.