Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-4-1Record16-3-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamUluu Kyrgyz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremiah WellsNow 1720
If they win+16→ 1736
If they lose-16→ 1704
Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1714
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
46%
Strike accuracy
50%
1.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
48%
Strike defense
29%
3.06
Takedown avg.
0
3%
Takedown accuracy
45%
50%
Takedown defense
0%
1.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremiah WellsMyktybek Orolbai
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
5 (36%)
Submission
6 (38%)
4 (29%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremiah Wells62%
Myktybek Orolbai 38%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremiah Wells a 62% favorite over Myktybek Orolbai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1720 vs 1714), separated by just 6 points.

Jeremiah Wells enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jeremiah Wells finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.