Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-1Record16-2-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Renzo Gracie PhillyTeamUluu Kyrgyz

What's at stake

Myktybek Orolbai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jeremiah Wells carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremiah WellsNow 1688
If they win+18→ 1706
If they lose-14→ 1674
Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1730
If they win+14→ 1744
If they lose-18→ 1712

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
46%
Strike accuracy
50%
1.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
48%
Strike defense
29%
3.06
Takedown avg.
0
3%
Takedown accuracy
45%
50%
Takedown defense
0%
1.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremiah WellsMyktybek Orolbai
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
4 (31%)
Submission
6 (38%)
4 (31%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Myktybek Orolbai73%
Jeremiah Wells 27%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 73% favorite over Jeremiah Wells in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Myktybek Orolbai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1688, a 42-point edge.

Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jeremiah Wells finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.