Jeremy Stephens vs King Green
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
King Green81%
Jeremy Stephens 19%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes King Green a 81% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
King Green holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1553, a 156-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record36-18-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1677 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
King Green is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1570
If they lose-7→ 1546
If they win+7→ 1716
If they lose-17→ 1692
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensKing Green