Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Mateusz Gamrot

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record26-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Mateusz Gamrot is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+20→ 1571
If they lose-4→ 1547
Mateusz GamrotNow 1824
If they win+4→ 1828
If they lose-20→ 1804

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1751 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
41%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.11
Takedown avg.
5.22
38%
Takedown accuracy
9%
62%
Takedown defense
83%
0.37
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensMateusz Gamrot
160017001800202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
2 (7%)
Submission
6 (23%)
8 (28%)
Decision
12 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Mateusz Gamrot92%
Jeremy Stephens 8%Elo baseline: 83%

The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Gamrot a 92% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).

Mateusz Gamrot holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1824 to 1551, a 273-point edge.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Gamrot 54%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.