Jeremy Stephens vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-23-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1568
If they lose-7→ 1544
If they win+7→ 1720
If they lose-17→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jeremy StephensRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos70%
Jeremy Stephens 30%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 70% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1551, a 162-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Jeremy Stephens and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Mateusz Gamrot.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.