Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jeremy StephensNow 1554
If they win+18→ 1572
If they lose-6→ 1548
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+6→ 1749
If they lose-18→ 1725

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
41%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.11
Takedown avg.
1.68
38%
Takedown accuracy
12%
62%
Takedown defense
64%
0.37
Submission avg.
0.56

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensRenato Moicano
1550160016501700175020252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
2 (7%)
Submission
11 (52%)
8 (28%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Renato Moicano92%
Jeremy Stephens 8%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 92% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1554, a 189-point edge.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.