Jesse Ronson vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-12-0Record19-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Adrenaline Training CenterTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jesse Ronson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1689
If they lose-9→ 1665
If they win+12→ 1768
If they lose-20→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse RonsonRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García87%
Jesse Ronson 13%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 87% favorite over Jesse Ronson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1674, a 82-point edge.
Jesse Ronson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jesse Ronson finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.