Combat Edge Intelligence

Jessica Aguilar vs Marina Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-10-0Record17-6-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'7"
63,0"Reach65"
107 lbsWeight115 lbs
Liborio ExperienceTeamThai Brasil· 1661 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Marina Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jessica Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jessica AguilarNow 1612
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
Marina RodriguezNow 1675
If they win+13→ 1688
If they lose-19→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.93
Sig. strikes / min
4.64
51%
Strike accuracy
47%
7.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.04
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.94
Takedown avg.
0.28
25%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
63%
0.24
Submission avg.
0.21

Trajectory

Jessica AguilarMarina Rodriguez
16001650170020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (10%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
8 (40%)
Submission
1 (6%)
10 (50%)
Decision
9 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Marina Rodriguez66%
Jessica Aguilar 34%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Marina Rodriguez a 66% favorite over Jessica Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Marina Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1612, a 63-point edge.

Jessica Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jessica Aguilar finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marina Rodriguez 47%.

Marina Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.