Combat Edge Intelligence

Jessica Penne vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'3"
67"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Alliance MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jessica Penne carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jessica PenneNow 1548
If they win+20→ 1568
If they lose-12→ 1536
Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631
If they win+9→ 1640
If they lose-15→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.63
Sig. strikes / min
5.54
33%
Strike accuracy
43%
5.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.51
45%
Strike defense
58%
1.29
Takedown avg.
0.31
19%
Takedown accuracy
23%
36%
Takedown defense
75%
0.49
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Jessica PenneKarolina Kowalkiewicz
155016001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (14%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
8 (57%)
Submission
3 (19%)
4 (29%)
Decision
12 (75%)

Combat Edge model read

Karolina Kowalkiewicz70%
Jessica Penne 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Karolina Kowalkiewicz a 70% favorite over Jessica Penne in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1548, a 83-point edge.

Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jessica Penne finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.

Jessica Penne carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.