Combat Edge Intelligence

Jim Miller vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jim Miller
us

Jim Miller

“A-10”

39-19-0LightweightUFC

1720Good

Tale of the tape

39-19-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
71"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jim MillerNow 1720
If they win+10→ 1730
If they lose-14→ 1706
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
42%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
57%
Strike defense
53%
1.50
Takedown avg.
1.05
45%
Takedown accuracy
31%
49%
Takedown defense
42%
1.70
Submission avg.
1.29

Trajectory

Jim MillerNate Diaz
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (18%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
22 (56%)
Submission
12 (57%)
10 (26%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Jim Miller51%
Nate Diaz 49%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 51% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1674, a 46-point edge.

Jim Miller finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Nate Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.