Jim Miller vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-19-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
71"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1730
If they lose-14→ 1706
If they win+14→ 1687
If they lose-10→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jim MillerNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz54%
Jim Miller 46%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 54% favorite over Jim Miller in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jim Miller's way (43%).
Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1673, a 47-point edge.
Jim Miller finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.