Combat Edge Intelligence

Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jim Miller
us

Jim Miller

“A-10”

39-19-0LightweightUFC

1720Good

Tale of the tape

39-19-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Nikolas Motta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jim MillerNow 1720
If they win+9→ 1729
If they lose-15→ 1705
Nikolas MottaNow 1642
If they win+20→ 1662
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
3.64
42%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
49%
Takedown defense
82%
1.70
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jim MillerNikolas Motta
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (18%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
22 (56%)
Submission
0 (0%)
10 (26%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Jim Miller70%
Nikolas Motta 30%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 70% favorite over Nikolas Motta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1642, a 78-point edge.

Jim Miller finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Nikolas Motta 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.