Jim Miller vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-19-0Record23-15-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach70,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1727
If they lose-17→ 1703
If they win+17→ 1589
If they lose-7→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jim MillerThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jim Miller87%
Thiago Alves 13%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 87% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1572, a 148-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jim Miller finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.