Jimmy Crute vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-4-2Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
74"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Jimmy Crute is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1689
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-10→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jimmy CrutePaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jimmy Crute58%
Paul Craig 42%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jimmy Crute a 58% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jimmy Crute holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1663, a 44-point edge.
Jimmy Crute enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jimmy Crute finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Jimmy Crute and Paul Craig share 2 common opponents: Jamahal Hill and Modestas Bukauskas.
Paul Craig carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.