Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record18-13-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'3"
65"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Joanna Jędrzejczyk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1697
If they lose-21→ 1665
If they win+15→ 1597
If they lose-9→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joanna JędrzejczykMichelle Waterson-Gomez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joanna Jędrzejczyk78%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Joanna Jędrzejczyk a 78% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Joanna Jędrzejczyk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1582, a 104-point edge.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk finishes 31% of wins inside the distance, Michelle Waterson-Gomez 67%.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson-Gomez share 1 common opponent: Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.