Combat Edge Intelligence

Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'3"
65"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Joanna Jędrzejczyk is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joanna JędrzejczykNow 1686
If they win+13→ 1699
If they lose-19→ 1667
Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-10→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.28
Sig. strikes / min
5.54
48%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.51
63%
Strike defense
58%
0.27
Takedown avg.
0.31
63%
Takedown accuracy
23%
80%
Takedown defense
75%
0.05
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Joanna JędrzejczykKarolina Kowalkiewicz
16501700202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
1 (6%)
Submission
3 (19%)
11 (69%)
Decision
12 (75%)

Combat Edge model read

Joanna Jędrzejczyk72%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Joanna Jędrzejczyk a 72% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Joanna Jędrzejczyk holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1631, a 55-point edge.

Joanna Jędrzejczyk enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Joanna Jędrzejczyk finishes 31% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.