Combat Edge Intelligence

Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-8-0Record19-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
76"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Sean Brady is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Joaquin Buckley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joaquin BuckleyNow 1755
If they win+14→ 1769
If they lose-10→ 1745
Sean BradyNow 1807
If they win+14→ 1821
If they lose-18→ 1789

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.62
Sig. strikes / min
3.96
36%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
59%
Strike defense
59%
1.43
Takedown avg.
3.53
17%
Takedown accuracy
53%
70%
Takedown defense
87%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.91

Trajectory

Joaquin BuckleySean Brady
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (71%)
KO/TKO
3 (16%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (32%)
6 (29%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Brady60%
Joaquin Buckley 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Brady a 60% favorite over Joaquin Buckley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Sean Brady holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1755, a 52-point edge.

Joaquin Buckley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joaquin Buckley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sean Brady 47%.

Joaquin Buckley carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.