Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Sean Brady64%
Joaquin Buckley 36%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Brady a 64% favorite over Joaquin Buckley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Sean Brady holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1808 to 1741, a 67-point edge.
Joaquin Buckley enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joaquin Buckley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sean Brady 47%.
Joaquin Buckley carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record19-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
76"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1667 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1740 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Sean Brady is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Joaquin Buckley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1755
If they lose-10→ 1731
If they win+13→ 1821
If they lose-19→ 1789
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joaquin BuckleySean Brady