Joe Duffy vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record23-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
73.00Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The MMA ClinicTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Duffy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+33→ 1596
If they lose-15→ 1548
If they win+10→ 1709
If they lose-22→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1642 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe DuffyJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez92%
Joe Duffy 8%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 92% favorite over Joe Duffy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1563, a 136-point edge.
Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Duffy finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joe Duffy and Joel Alvarez share 1 common opponent: Marc Diakiese.
Joel Alvarez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.