Joe Ellenberger vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
72,0"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Premier Combat CenterTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe EllenbergerThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés62%
Joe Ellenberger 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 62% favorite over Joe Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Ellenberger's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1685), separated by just 0 points.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Ellenberger finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Joe Ellenberger carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.