Joe Giannetti vs Wilson Varela
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Wilson Varela55%
Joe Giannetti 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Varela a 55% favorite over Joe Giannetti in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Giannetti's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.
Joe Giannetti enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Giannetti finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-5-1Record14-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
42,0"Reach75.6"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
South Shore SportfightingTeamMarseille Fight Club· 1625 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joe GiannettiWilson Varela