Combat Edge Intelligence

Joe Proctor vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team AggressionTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

Magomed Mustafaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joe Proctor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joe ProctorNow 1596
If they win+21→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1585
Magomed MustafaevNow 1699
If they win+11→ 1710
If they lose-21→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.39
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
37%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
60%
Strike defense
41%
0
Takedown avg.
3.31
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
70%
Takedown defense
23%
1.83
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Joe ProctorMagomed Mustafaev
160016501700201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
5 (45%)
Submission
4 (29%)
4 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Mustafaev78%
Joe Proctor 22%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Mustafaev a 78% favorite over Joe Proctor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Magomed Mustafaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1596, a 103-point edge.

Joe Proctor enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joe Proctor finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.