Joel Alvarez vs Jorge Santiago
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record25-12-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezJorge Santiago
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez76%
Jorge Santiago 24%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 76% favorite over Jorge Santiago in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jorge Santiago's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1703), separated by just 4 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jorge Santiago enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Santiago 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.