Joel Alvarez vs Kevin Holland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record29-15-0
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"Reach81"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezKevin Holland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland66%
Joel Alvarez 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 66% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1736), separated by just 4 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.
Joel Alvarez and Kevin Holland share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Kevin Holland carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.