Joel Alvarez vs Magomed Magomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record15-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'9"
77"Reach-
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamKHK MMA Dagestan· 1661 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
If they win+16→ 1751
If they lose-16→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezMagomed Magomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez70%
Magomed Magomedov 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 70% favorite over Magomed Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Magomed Magomedov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1735), separated by just 3 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Magomed Magomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Magomedov 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.