Joel Alvarez vs Mike Swick
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1714
If they lose-16→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezMike Swick
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez75%
Mike Swick 25%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 75% favorite over Mike Swick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1698), separated by just 1 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mike Swick enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Mike Swick 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.