Joel Alvarez vs Pawel Pawlak
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record23-4-1
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamOctopus Lodz
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezPawel Pawlak
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez71%
Pawel Pawlak 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 71% favorite over Pawel Pawlak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1732), separated by just 0 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Pawlak 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.