Joel Alvarez vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'8"
77"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joel Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1716
If they lose-15→ 1684
If they win+11→ 1725
If they lose-13→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez92%
Rafael dos Anjos 8%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 92% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (48%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1699, a 15-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Joel Alvarez and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Joel Alvarez carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.