Joel Alvarez vs Roan Carneiro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record21-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach74,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezRoan Carneiro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez75%
Roan Carneiro 25%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 75% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roan Carneiro's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1700), separated by just 1 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.