Joel Alvarez vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record24-13-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75″
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Vicente Luque carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1747
If they lose-17→ 1715
If they win+13→ 1721
If they lose-11→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque54%
Joel Alvarez 46%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 54% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joel Alvarez's way (47%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1708, a 24-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.