Joel Alvarez vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-0Record24-12-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75″
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
If they win+12→ 1735
If they lose-12→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Joel Alvarez and Vicente Luque within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1723), separated by just 8 points.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.