Joel Alvarez vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record24-13-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75″
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1712 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque60%
Joel Alvarez 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 60% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1707), separated by just 8 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.